Center of Gravity Analysis Guide: Difference between revisions
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== Overview == | == Overview == | ||
The Center of Gravity (COG) is a pivotal concept in military theory and strategic planning, originating from Carl von Clausewitz's work. It represents the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will. Proper identification and manipulation of the COG can lead to significant strategic advantages and can be decisive in military operations. | The Center of Gravity (COG) is a pivotal concept in military theory and strategic planning, originating from Carl von Clausewitz's work. It represents the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will. Proper identification and manipulation of the COG can lead to significant strategic advantages and can be decisive in military operations. <ref>'''Carl von Clausewitz. ''On War.'' Edited and translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976.'''</ref> | ||
Understanding the COG helps commanders focus their efforts on targets that will | Understanding the COG helps commanders focus their efforts on targets that will greatly affect the adversary's ability to conduct operations while protecting their own COG. | ||
Joint Publication (JP) 1-02 defines COG as “those characteristics, capabilities, or sources of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.” <ref>U.S. Department of Defense. ''Joint Publication 1-02, Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms.'' Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, last updated 2019. <nowiki>https://www.jcs.mil/Doctrine/DOD-Terminology-Program/</nowiki>.</ref> | |||
JP 3-0 defines COG as "the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will to act.”<ref>U.S. Department of Defense. ''Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Campaigns and Operations.'' Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 2022. <nowiki>https://www.jcs.mil/Doctrine/Joint-Doctrine-Pubs/3-0-Operations-Series/</nowiki>.</ref> | |||
== Objectives and Detailed Questions == | == Objectives and Detailed Questions == | ||
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=== Identify the COG === | === Identify the COG === | ||
Accurately identifying the COG is critical for successful operational planning. This | Accurately identifying the COG is critical for successful operational planning. This thoroughly analyzes friendly forces, adversaries, and other relevant actors such as host nations.<ref>Joint Publication 5-0, ''Joint Planning'', U.S. Department of Defense, 1 December 2020.</ref> | ||
==== '''Friendly COG''': ==== | |||
Assess our foundational strengths across various domains providing potential risks to mitigate. | |||
* '''Diplomatic''': What international alliances and diplomatic relations fortify our position? | |||
'''Diplomatic''': What international alliances and diplomatic relations fortify our position? | |||
* '''Information''': Which communication and propaganda efforts are most influential? | * '''Information''': Which communication and propaganda efforts are most influential? | ||
* '''Military''': What units, capabilities, or systems are crucial for our success? | * '''Military''': What units, capabilities, or systems are crucial for our success? | ||
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* '''Space''': How do our satellite and space-based operations enhance our strategic goals? | * '''Space''': How do our satellite and space-based operations enhance our strategic goals? | ||
'''Adversary COG''': Pinpoint the adversary’s vital sources of power and potential targets: | ==== '''Adversary COG''': ==== | ||
'''Diplomatic''': How do their international relationships affect their strategic capabilities? | Pinpoint the adversary’s vital sources of power and potential targets: | ||
* '''Diplomatic''': How do their international relationships affect their strategic capabilities? | |||
* '''Information''': What misinformation or psychological operations do they deploy? | * '''Information''': What misinformation or psychological operations do they deploy? | ||
* '''Military''': Which military assets are essential to their operational success? | * '''Military''': Which military assets are essential to their operational success? | ||
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* '''Space''': Do they rely heavily on space-based assets? | * '''Space''': Do they rely heavily on space-based assets? | ||
'''Host Nation COG''': Assess the host nation’s pivotal strengths and vulnerabilities: | ==== '''Host Nation COG''': ==== | ||
'''Diplomatic''': What is the host nation’s stance, and how does it influence the conflict? | Assess the host nation’s pivotal strengths and vulnerabilities: | ||
* '''Diplomatic''': What is the host nation’s stance, and how does it influence the conflict? | |||
* '''Information''': What are their capabilities in managing or disseminating information? | * '''Information''': What are their capabilities in managing or disseminating information? | ||
* '''Military''': What military aspects of the host nation could influence their role in the conflict? | * '''Military''': What military aspects of the host nation could influence their role in the conflict? | ||
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== Steps in COG Analysis == | == Steps in COG Analysis == | ||
COG analysis involves a systematic approach to identify and exploit or protect centers of gravity. | COG analysis involves a systematic approach to identify and exploit or protect centers of gravity. <ref>RAND Corporation. ''Vulnerability Assessment Method Pocket Guide: A Tool for Center of Gravity Analysis.'' Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2014. <nowiki>https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL129.html</nowiki>.</ref> | ||
<ref>U.S. Department of Defense. ''Joint Publication 3-0, Joint Campaigns and Operations.'' Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, 2022. <nowiki>https://www.jcs.mil/Doctrine/Joint-Doctrine-Pubs/3-0-Operations-Series/</nowiki>.</ref> | |||
<ref>Eikmeier, Dale C. “The Center of Gravity: Still Relevant After All These Years?” ''Military Review'', May 11, 2017. <nowiki>https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/Online-Exclusive/2017-Online-Exclusive-Articles/The-Center-of-Gravity/</nowiki>.</ref> | |||
<ref>Giles, Phillip Kevin, and Thomas Patrick Galvin. ''Determination, Analysis, and Application.'' Carlisle Barracks, PA: Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, January 31, 1996. <nowiki>https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA593948.pdf</nowiki>.</ref> | |||
=== 1. Define the Operational Environment === | === 1. Define the Operational Environment === | ||
Refer to the [[PMESII-PT|PMESII-PT]] (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, Time) framework to | Refer to the [[PMESII-PT|PMESII-PT]] (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, Time) framework to comprehensively understand the operational environment. | ||
'''Questions to consider:''' | '''Questions to consider:''' | ||
* What are the geographic, political, and societal characteristics | * What are the geographic, political, and societal characteristics affect potential COGs? | ||
* How do these elements advantage or disadvantage various actors? | * How do these elements advantage or disadvantage various actors? | ||
* What historical, cultural, and economic factors influence the conflict? | * What historical, cultural, and economic factors influence the conflict? | ||
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* What are their primary sources of power? | * What are their primary sources of power? | ||
* How do these COGs support their strategic objectives? | * How do these COGs support their strategic objectives? | ||
* Are | * Are multiple COGs at different levels (strategic, operational, tactical)? | ||
=== 3. Identify Critical Capabilities === | === 3. Identify Critical Capabilities === | ||
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* What can the COG do to achieve its objectives? | * What can the COG do to achieve its objectives? | ||
* How does the COG exert influence or control? | * How does the COG exert influence or control? | ||
'''Strategic Contribution:''' | |||
* How do these capabilities contribute to the actor's overall mission? | * How do these capabilities contribute to the actor's overall mission? | ||
* What would be the impact if these capabilities were degraded or neutralized? | * What would be the impact if these capabilities were degraded or neutralized? | ||
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* '''Project Power''': Ability to deploy forces rapidly across different theaters. | * '''Project Power''': Ability to deploy forces rapidly across different theaters. | ||
* '''Sustain Operations''': Maintain prolonged military campaigns. | * '''Sustain Operations''': Maintain prolonged military campaigns. | ||
'''Information''': | |||
* '''Influence Public Perception''': Shape narratives to gain support. | * '''Influence Public Perception''': Shape narratives to gain support. | ||
* '''Collect Intelligence''': Gather actionable information on adversaries. | * '''Collect Intelligence''': Gather actionable information on adversaries. | ||
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* What resources are necessary for the critical capabilities? | * What resources are necessary for the critical capabilities? | ||
* Consider personnel, equipment, logistics, information, and infrastructure. | * Consider personnel, equipment, logistics, information, and infrastructure. | ||
'''Questions to consider:''' | |||
* What logistical support is required? | * What logistical support is required? | ||
* Are there technological dependencies? | * Are there technological dependencies? | ||
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* Are there resource constraints or dependencies? | * Are there resource constraints or dependencies? | ||
* What are the physical or cyber vulnerabilities? | * What are the physical or cyber vulnerabilities? | ||
'''Analysis:''' | |||
* How can these vulnerabilities be exploited? | * How can these vulnerabilities be exploited? | ||
* What would be the effect of exploiting these vulnerabilities on the COG? | * What would be the effect of exploiting these vulnerabilities on the COG? | ||
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==== Scoring System ==== | ==== Scoring System ==== | ||
When establishing a scoring system for Center of Gravity (COG) analysis or any operational planning process, selecting a system ensures consistency, clarity, and precision is essential. The scoring system chosen should align with the specific objectives of the analysis and be easily understood by all participants. It is crucial to define each criterion clearly so | When establishing a scoring system for Center of Gravity (COG) analysis or any operational planning process, selecting a system ensures consistency, clarity, and precision is essential. The scoring system chosen should align with the specific objectives of the analysis and be easily understood by all participants. It is crucial to define each criterion clearly so planners can interpret the scores uniformly. This will help ensure that lower or higher scores consistently reflect greater or lesser advantages, risks, or priorities. | ||
Two primary approaches to scoring are '''Traditional Scoring''' and '''Logarithmic Scoring'''. Each method has | Two primary approaches to scoring are '''Traditional Scoring''' and '''Logarithmic Scoring'''. Each method has strengths and should be selected based on the analysis's complexity and depth. | ||
===== Traditional Scoring ===== | |||
Traditional scoring is a linear method where each criterion is rated on a simple scale, often between 1 and 5. This system is straightforward and effective for scenarios where planners need a basic method to compare and prioritize factors. | Traditional scoring is a linear method where each criterion is rated on a simple scale, often between 1 and 5. This system is straightforward and effective for scenarios where planners need a basic method to compare and prioritize factors. | ||
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'''Pros:''' | '''Pros:''' | ||
* Simple and easy to understand. | * Simple and easy to understand. | ||
* | * It is ideal for straightforward evaluations with limited complexity. | ||
'''Cons:''' | '''Cons:''' | ||
* Does not emphasize significant differences between higher values. | * Does not emphasize significant differences between higher values. | ||
* | * It may lack nuance for complex, multidimensional problems. | ||
===== Logarithmic Scoring ===== | |||
Logarithmic scoring is a more nuanced system that allows for greater differentiation between scores, especially at the higher end of the scale. This method is particularly useful when certain factors exponentially impact outcomes. For example, a small increase in a critical capability may drastically affect the overall mission, and logarithmic scoring captures that non-linear impact. | Logarithmic scoring is a more nuanced system that allows for greater differentiation between scores, especially at the higher end of the scale. This method is particularly useful when certain factors exponentially impact outcomes. For example, a small increase in a critical capability may drastically affect the overall mission, and logarithmic scoring captures that non-linear impact. | ||
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'''Cons:''' | '''Cons:''' | ||
* | * It is more complex to implement and may require additional explanation for users. | ||
* | * It can be harder to interpret when applied to simpler problems. | ||
'''Calculating a Composite Score''' | '''Calculating a Composite Score''' | ||
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* '''Interpretation''': Use the total score to rank vulnerabilities, prioritize mitigation efforts, or allocate resources more effectively. | * '''Interpretation''': Use the total score to rank vulnerabilities, prioritize mitigation efforts, or allocate resources more effectively. | ||
Example: If vulnerability A scores 30 and vulnerability B scores 18, | Example: If vulnerability A scores 30 and vulnerability B scores 18, vulnerability A should be addressed first due to its higher composite score. | ||
'''Best Practices for Scoring''' | '''Best Practices for Scoring''' | ||
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# '''Adaptability''': Be prepared to adjust the scoring system based on the specific requirements of the operation or mission. | # '''Adaptability''': Be prepared to adjust the scoring system based on the specific requirements of the operation or mission. | ||
# '''Training''': Provide sufficient training to ensure that all analysts and planners understand how to apply the scoring system correctly. | # '''Training''': Provide sufficient training to ensure that all analysts and planners understand how to apply the scoring system correctly. | ||
=== Composite Score Calculation === | === Composite Score Calculation === | ||
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== Tools and Techniques == | == Tools and Techniques == | ||
'''SWOT Analysis''': Evaluate Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats for each COG. | |||
* '''[[Structured Analytic Techniques#Technique 3: Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)|SWOT Analysis]]''': Evaluate Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats for each COG. | |||
* '''[[PMESII-PT|PMESII-PT Framework]]''': Analyze the operational environment comprehensively. | * '''[[PMESII-PT|PMESII-PT Framework]]''': Analyze the operational environment comprehensively. | ||
* '''Systems Thinking''': Understand the interdependencies within the operational environment. | * '''Systems Thinking''': Understand the interdependencies within the operational environment. | ||
* '''Red Teaming''': Use adversarial thinking to challenge assumptions and identify vulnerabilities. | * '''[[Structured Analytic Techniques#Technique 1: Red Hat Analysis and Structured Brainstorming|Red Teaming]]''': Use adversarial thinking to challenge assumptions and identify vulnerabilities. | ||
== Best Practices == | == Best Practices == | ||
'''Continuous Assessment''': Regularly update COG analysis to reflect changes in the operational environment. | |||
* '''Continuous Assessment''': Regularly update COG analysis to reflect changes in the operational environment. | |||
* '''Interdisciplinary Approach''': Incorporate insights from intelligence, logistics, cyber, and other relevant fields. | * '''Interdisciplinary Approach''': Incorporate insights from intelligence, logistics, cyber, and other relevant fields. | ||
* '''Operational Security''': Protect your | * '''Operational Security''': Protect your COG analysis from adversary intelligence efforts. | ||
* '''Commander's Guidance''': Align COG analysis with the commander's intent and operational objectives. | * '''Commander's Guidance''': Align COG analysis with the commander's intent and operational objectives. | ||
== References == | == References == | ||
[[Category:Military Planning]] | [[Category:Military Planning]] | ||