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Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs): Difference between revisions

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== Eight Rules for Successful Brainstorming ==
== Eight Rules for Successful Brainstorming ==
[[File:/topic/research/media/EIGHT-RULES-FOR-SUCCESSFUL-BRAINSTORMING.png]]
[[File:EIGHT-RULES-FOR-SUCCESSFUL-BRAINSTORMING.png|500px|]]


== Technique Level 1 ==
== Technique Level 1 ==


=== Technique 1: Chronologies and Timelines ===
=== Technique 1: Chronologies and Timelines ===
[[File:media/Figure-7.2-Timeline_Estimate.png]] (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 211)
[[File:Figure-7.2-Timeline_Estimate.png]] (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 211)


'''Step-by-Step Guide:'''
'''Step-by-Step Guide:'''
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''' Are there gaps in the data?
''' Are there gaps in the data?
'''Source''': (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 160)
'''Source''': (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 160)
---


=== Technique 1: Getting Started Checklist ===
=== Technique 1: Getting Started Checklist ===
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* '''STEP 5''': Who are the primary customers? Are their needs clear? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)
* '''STEP 5''': Who are the primary customers? Are their needs clear? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)
* '''STEP 6''': Are there other stakeholders with differing perspectives? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)
* '''STEP 6''': Are there other stakeholders with differing perspectives? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)
---


=== Technique 1: Starbursting ===
=== Technique 1: Starbursting ===


Find the template from [MindTools-Starbursting](https://www.mindtools.com/ab1w9zu/starbursting) or [download here](./media/Starbursting.pdf).
Find the template from [MindTools-Starbursting](https://www.mindtools.com/ab1w9zu/starbursting) or [[File:Starbursting.pdf|download here]].


[[File:media/Figure-6.5-Starbursting-Example.png]] (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 167)
[[File:Figure-6.5-Starbursting-Example.png|500px]]  
(Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 167)


---
{| style="text-align:center; border-collapse: collapse; margin: 0 auto;"
|-
| colspan="3" | '''What?'''
|-
| '''Why?''' || '''Central Problem/Question''' || '''Who?'''
|-
| colspan="3" | '''How?'''
|-
| colspan="3" | '''When?'''
|-
| colspan="3" | '''Where?'''
|}


=== Technique 1: Force Field Analysis ===
=== Technique 1: Force Field Analysis ===
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* '''STEP 4''': Assign values to the arguments to determine their strength. Calculate the total score to determine the dominant side. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)
* '''STEP 4''': Assign values to the arguments to determine their strength. Calculate the total score to determine the dominant side. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)


[[File:media/table-4.2.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)
[[File:table-4.2.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)
 
---


=== Technique 1: Key Assumptions Check ===
=== Technique 1: Key Assumptions Check ===
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* '''STEP 4''': Refine the list and update based on group feedback. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)
* '''STEP 4''': Refine the list and update based on group feedback. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)


[[File:media/table-6.4.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)
[[File:table-6.4.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)
 
---


=== Technique 1: Red Hat Analysis and Structured Brainstorming ===
=== Technique 1: Red Hat Analysis and Structured Brainstorming ===
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* '''STEP 2''': Use sticky notes to brainstorm without discussion. Focus on what the adversary would consider when acting. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)
* '''STEP 2''': Use sticky notes to brainstorm without discussion. Focus on what the adversary would consider when acting. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)
* '''STEP 3''': Group and analyze ideas for common themes. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)
* '''STEP 3''': Group and analyze ideas for common themes. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)
---


=== Technique 1: Structured Brainstorming ===
=== Technique 1: Structured Brainstorming ===
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* '''STEP 2''': Post sticky notes on a wall and rearrange them into groups based on similarities. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)
* '''STEP 2''': Post sticky notes on a wall and rearrange them into groups based on similarities. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)
* '''STEP 3''': Analyze themes and draw conclusions for further investigation. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)
* '''STEP 3''': Analyze themes and draw conclusions for further investigation. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)
---


== Technique Level 2 ==
== Technique Level 2 ==
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[[File:media/table-4.3.png]]
[[File:media/table-4.3.png]]
---


=== AI Content Detection ===
=== AI Content Detection ===
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* '''Pay attention to details like hands, faces, lighting, textures, and patterns.'''
* '''Pay attention to details like hands, faces, lighting, textures, and patterns.'''
* '''Use tools like [Wasitai Detector](https://wasitai.com) and [Scribbr AI Detector](https://www.scribbr.com/ai-detector/).'''
* '''Use tools like [Wasitai Detector](https://wasitai.com) and [Scribbr AI Detector](https://www.scribbr.com/ai-detector/).'''
---


=== Technique 2: Decision Matrix ===
=== Technique 2: Decision Matrix ===
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* '''STEP 3''': Assign weights and score options. Calculate the total score and choose the best option. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 456)
* '''STEP 3''': Assign weights and score options. Calculate the total score and choose the best option. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 456)


---
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="5" | '''Decision Matrix: <Decision/Question>'''
|-
! Criteria
! Weight
! Option 1
! Option 2
! Option 3
|-
| '''Criterion 1:'''
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|-
| '''Criterion 2:'''
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|-
| '''Criterion 3:'''
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| '''Criterion 4:'''
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|-
| '''Criterion 5:'''
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|-
! '''Total Weighted Score:'''
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|-
! colspan="5" | '''Best Option:'''
|-
| colspan="5" |
* Selected Option: (e.g., Option 1 based on the highest score)
|}


=== Technique 2: Devil’s Advocacy ===
=== Technique 2: Devil’s Advocacy ===
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* '''STEP 1''': Start with the project’s goals, assumptions, and gaps. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)
* '''STEP 1''': Start with the project’s goals, assumptions, and gaps. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)
* '''STEP 2''': Build a logical case against the proposed decision by focusing on potential pitfalls. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)
* '''STEP 2''': Build a logical case against the proposed decision by focusing on potential pitfalls. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)
---


=== Technique 2: Mind Maps ===
=== Technique 2: Mind Maps ===
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* '''STEP 2''': Brainstorm possible explanations and group ideas into categories. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 233)
* '''STEP 2''': Brainstorm possible explanations and group ideas into categories. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 233)
* '''STEP 3''': Expand the mind map by drawing connections between ideas. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 234)
* '''STEP 3''': Expand the mind map by drawing connections between ideas. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 234)
---


=== Technique 2: Morphological Analysis ===
=== Technique 2: Morphological Analysis ===
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* '''STEP 1''': Define the problem’s dimensions (group, activity, method, impact). (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)
* '''STEP 1''': Define the problem’s dimensions (group, activity, method, impact). (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)
* '''STEP 2''': Combine dimensions to generate alternative scenarios and refine them. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)
* '''STEP 2''': Combine dimensions to generate alternative scenarios and refine them. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)
---


=== Technique 2: Multiple Hypothesis Generation—Simple Hypotheses ===
=== Technique 2: Multiple Hypothesis Generation—Simple Hypotheses ===
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* '''STEP 3''': Select the most promising hypotheses for further analysis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)
* '''STEP 3''': Select the most promising hypotheses for further analysis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)


---
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="6" | '''Multiple Hypothesis Generation Table: <Objective/Problem>'''
|-
! Hypothesis
! Who
! What
! When
! Where
! Why
|-
| '''Hypothesis 1:'''
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|-
| '''Hypothesis 2:'''
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|-
| '''Hypothesis 3:'''
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| '''Hypothesis 4:'''
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| '''Hypothesis 5:'''
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! colspan="6" | '''Selected Promising Hypotheses for Further Analysis'''
|-
| colspan="6" |
* Selected Hypothesis 1: (e.g., Hypothesis 1 based on evidence and plausibility)
* Selected Hypothesis 2: (e.g., Hypothesis 3 with strong indicators)
|}


=== Technique 2: Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes ===
=== Technique 2: Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes ===
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* '''STEP 2''': List pros and cons, and develop fixes for the cons. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 277)
* '''STEP 2''': List pros and cons, and develop fixes for the cons. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 277)
* '''STEP 3''': Compare the pros and cons, and assess the risk associated with each. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 278)
* '''STEP 3''': Compare the pros and cons, and assess the risk associated with each. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 278)
---


=== Technique 2: What If? Analysis ===
=== Technique 2: What If? Analysis ===
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* '''STEP 1''': Assume the event has occurred and develop a chain of reasoning for how it happened. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 350)
* '''STEP 1''': Assume the event has occurred and develop a chain of reasoning for how it happened. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 350)
* '''STEP 2''': Rank scenarios based on severity and probability. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 351)
* '''STEP 2''': Rank scenarios based on severity and probability. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 351)
---


== Technique Level 3 ==
== Technique Level 3 ==
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* '''STEP 2''': Assess information for consistency with each hypothesis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 209)
* '''STEP 2''': Assess information for consistency with each hypothesis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 209)
* '''STEP 3''': Refine hypotheses and conclusions based on inconsistencies. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 210)
* '''STEP 3''': Refine hypotheses and conclusions based on inconsistencies. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 210)
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; width:100%;"
|+ '''Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Table'''
! rowspan="2" | Evidence/Arguments
! colspan="5" | Hypotheses To Be Compared
|-
! Hypothesis 1
! Hypothesis 2
! Hypothesis 3
! Hypothesis 4
! Hypothesis 5
|-
! Evidence/Argument 1
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{Neutral}} Neutral
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{No}} Inconsistent
|-
! Evidence/Argument 2
| {{Neutral}} Neutral
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{Yes}} Consistent
|-
! Evidence/Argument 3
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{Neutral}} Neutral
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{No}} Inconsistent
|-
! Evidence/Argument 4
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{Neutral}} Neutral
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{Neutral}} Neutral
|-
! Evidence/Argument 5
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{Neutral}} Neutral
| {{Yes}} Consistent
| {{No}} Inconsistent
| {{Yes}} Consistent
|-
! colspan="1" | '''Total Inconsistencies'''
| '''X'''
| '''Y'''
| '''Z'''
| '''A'''
| '''B'''
|-
! colspan="1" | '''Tentative Conclusion'''
| colspan="5" | The hypothesis with the fewest inconsistencies is the most likely.
|}


[[File:media/Figure%207.6A%20Creating%20an%20ACH%20Matrix.png]] (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 245)
[[File:media/Figure%207.6A%20Creating%20an%20ACH%20Matrix.png]] (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 245)
---


=== Technique 3: Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) ===
=== Technique 3: Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) ===
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[[File:media/figure-10.4-swot-analysis.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)
[[File:media/figure-10.4-swot-analysis.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)


---
{| class="wikitable"
! colspan="2" | SWOT Analysis: '''<Objective>'''
|-
! Strengths
! Weaknesses
|-
|
* Strength 1
* Strength 2
* Strength 3
|
* Weakness 1
* Weakness 2
* Weakness 3
|-
! Opportunities
! Threats
|-
|
* Opportunity 1
* Opportunity 2
* Opportunity 3
|
* Threat 1
* Threat 2
* Threat 3
|-
! colspan="2" | '''Strategies for Action'''
|-
| colspan="2" |
'''Exploiting Strengths & Opportunities:'''
* Strategy 1: (e.g., Use Strength 1 to maximize Opportunity 1)
* Strategy 2: (e.g., Leverage Strength 2 to counter Threat 2)
* Strategy 3: (e.g., Use Opportunity 3 to reduce Weakness 3)
 
'''Mitigating Weaknesses & Threats:'''
* Strategy 4: (e.g., Address Weakness 2 to avoid Threat 1)
* Strategy 5: (e.g., Minimize Weakness 1 through Opportunity 2)
|}


=== Technique 3: Foresight Quadrant Crunching ===
=== Technique 3: Foresight Quadrant Crunching ===
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[[File:media/table-13.3.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)
[[File:media/table-13.3.png]] (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)
---


=== Technique 3: Indicators ===
=== Technique 3: Indicators ===
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* '''STEP 1''': Brainstorm indicators for each scenario. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)
* '''STEP 1''': Brainstorm indicators for each scenario. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)
* '''STEP 2''': Refine the indicators, ensuring they are observable, valid, reliable, and stable. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)
* '''STEP 2''': Refine the indicators, ensuring they are observable, valid, reliable, and stable. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)
---


== Technique Level 4 ==
== Technique Level 4 ==
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[[Category:Analysis Methods]]
[[Category:Analysis Methods]]
[[Category:Guides]]
[[Category:Guides]]
[[Category:Frameworks]]
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