Structured Analytic Techniques

Research Resources

Eight Rules for Successful Brainstorming

Technique Level 1

Technique 1: Chronologies and Timelines

File:Media/Figure-7.2-Timeline Estimate.png (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 211)

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Identify all key events and arrange them chronologically in a table with one column for the date and one column for the event. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 159)
• STEP 2: Select relevant information from the event narrative and organize it along the timeline. Can the data be categorized? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 160)
• STEP 3: Review the timeline by asking questions:

Are assumptions about evidence considered? Does the duration and sequence of events make sense? Are there gaps in the data? Source: (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 160)

Technique 1: Getting Started Checklist

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: What prompted the analysis? Is it a report, development, or customer request? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110)
• STEP 2: What is the key question that needs to be answered? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110)
• STEP 3: Why is the issue important, and how will analysis make a difference? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110)
• STEP 4: Has the question been answered before? What has changed? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110-111)
• STEP 5: Who are the primary customers? Are their needs clear? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)
• STEP 6: Are there other stakeholders with differing perspectives? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)

Technique 1: Starbursting

Find the template from [MindTools-Starbursting](https://www.mindtools.com/ab1w9zu/starbursting) or [download here](./media/Starbursting.pdf).

File:Media/Figure-6.5-Starbursting-Example.png (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 167)

What?
Why?	Central Problem/Question	Who?
How?
When?
Where?

Technique 1: Force Field Analysis

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Define the problem or goal clearly. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)
• STEP 2: Brainstorm the main factors influencing the issue. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)
• STEP 3: Create two lists—one for supporting arguments and one for opposing ones. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)
• STEP 4: Assign values to the arguments to determine their strength. Calculate the total score to determine the dominant side. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

File:Media/table-4.2.png (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

Technique 1: Key Assumptions Check

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Gather a group, including outsiders, to brainstorm assumptions. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 185)
• STEP 2: List assumptions on a whiteboard and critique them. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 185)
• STEP 3: Categorize assumptions as supported, uncertain, or unsupported. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)
• STEP 4: Refine the list and update based on group feedback. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)

File:Media/table-6.4.png (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)

Technique 1: Red Hat Analysis and Structured Brainstorming

• Avoid mirror imaging—assuming others think like you. Red Hat Analysis helps to view problems as others might, particularly adversaries.*

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Gather analysts with knowledge of the target, environment, or decision-makers. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)
• STEP 2: Use sticky notes to brainstorm without discussion. Focus on what the adversary would consider when acting. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)
• STEP 3: Group and analyze ideas for common themes. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)

Technique 1: Structured Brainstorming

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Gather a team of analysts. Use sticky notes for brainstorming, focusing on possible causes or factors. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 250)
• STEP 2: Post sticky notes on a wall and rearrange them into groups based on similarities. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)
• STEP 3: Analyze themes and draw conclusions for further investigation. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)

Technique Level 2

Technique 2: Deception Detection

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Use deception detection checklists to assess the situation. Consider the motives, past practices, and the source’s credibility. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 161)
• STEP 2: Analyze deception potential using checklists such as MOM (Motive, Opportunity, Means) and POP (Past Opposition Practices). (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 256)

File:Media/table-4.3.png

AI Content Detection

How to detect synthetic content:

• Pay attention to details like hands, faces, lighting, textures, and patterns.
• Use tools like [Wasitai Detector](https://wasitai.com) and [Scribbr AI Detector](https://www.scribbr.com/ai-detector/).

Technique 2: Decision Matrix

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Identify the decision or question. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 454)
• STEP 2: List criteria and options. Consolidate items to remove overlap. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 454)
• STEP 3: Assign weights and score options. Calculate the total score and choose the best option. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 456)

Decision Matrix: <Decision/Question>
Criteria	Weight	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
Criterion 1:
Criterion 2:
Criterion 3:
Criterion 4:
Criterion 5:
Total Weighted Score:
Best Option:
Selected Option: (e.g., Option 1 based on the highest score)

Technique 2: Devil’s Advocacy

• Devil’s Advocacy helps critique decisions or plans by exploring what could go wrong.*

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Start with the project’s goals, assumptions, and gaps. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)
• STEP 2: Build a logical case against the proposed decision by focusing on potential pitfalls. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)

Technique 2: Mind Maps

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Write the focal question at the center of the page. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 233)
• STEP 2: Brainstorm possible explanations and group ideas into categories. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 233)
• STEP 3: Expand the mind map by drawing connections between ideas. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 234)

Technique 2: Morphological Analysis

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Define the problem’s dimensions (group, activity, method, impact). (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)
• STEP 2: Combine dimensions to generate alternative scenarios and refine them. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)

Technique 2: Multiple Hypothesis Generation—Simple Hypotheses

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Brainstorm hypotheses. Write them down and consolidate similar ideas. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)
• STEP 2: Clarify each hypothesis using Who, What, When, Where, and Why. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)
• STEP 3: Select the most promising hypotheses for further analysis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)

Multiple Hypothesis Generation Table: <Objective/Problem>
Hypothesis	Who	What	When	Where	Why
Hypothesis 1:
Hypothesis 2:
Hypothesis 3:
Hypothesis 4:
Hypothesis 5:
Selected Promising Hypotheses for Further Analysis
Selected Hypothesis 1: (e.g., Hypothesis 1 based on evidence and plausibility) Selected Hypothesis 2: (e.g., Hypothesis 3 with strong indicators)

Technique 2: Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Define the decision clearly. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 277)
• STEP 2: List pros and cons, and develop fixes for the cons. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 277)
• STEP 3: Compare the pros and cons, and assess the risk associated with each. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 278)

Technique 2: What If? Analysis

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Assume the event has occurred and develop a chain of reasoning for how it happened. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 350)
• STEP 2: Rank scenarios based on severity and probability. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 351)

Technique Level 3

Technique 3: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: List hypotheses to be considered. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 209)
• STEP 2: Assess information for consistency with each hypothesis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 209)
• STEP 3: Refine hypotheses and conclusions based on inconsistencies. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 210)

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Table

Evidence/Arguments	Hypotheses To Be Compared
	Hypothesis 1	Hypothesis 2	Hypothesis 3	Hypothesis 4	Hypothesis 5
Evidence/Argument 1	Consistent	Inconsistent	Neutral Neutral	Consistent	Inconsistent
Evidence/Argument 2	Neutral Neutral	Consistent	Inconsistent	Inconsistent	Consistent
Evidence/Argument 3	Inconsistent	Neutral Neutral	Consistent	Consistent	Inconsistent
Evidence/Argument 4	Consistent	Consistent	Neutral Neutral	Inconsistent	Neutral Neutral
Evidence/Argument 5	Inconsistent	Neutral Neutral	Consistent	Inconsistent	Consistent
Total Inconsistencies	X	Y	Z	A	B
Tentative Conclusion	The hypothesis with the fewest inconsistencies is the most likely.

File:Media/Figure 7.6A Creating an ACH Matrix.png (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 245)

Technique 3: Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Define the objective clearly. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)
• STEP 2: List strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)
• STEP 3: Identify strategies for exploiting strengths and opportunities, and mitigating weaknesses and threats.

File:Media/figure-10.4-swot-analysis.png (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)

SWOT Analysis: <Objective>
Strengths	Weaknesses
Strength 1 Strength 2 Strength 3	Weakness 1 Weakness 2 Weakness 3
Opportunities	Threats
Opportunity 1 Opportunity 2 Opportunity 3	Threat 1 Threat 2 Threat 3
Strategies for Action
Exploiting Strengths & Opportunities: Strategy 1: (e.g., Use Strength 1 to maximize Opportunity 1) Strategy 2: (e.g., Leverage Strength 2 to counter Threat 2) Strategy 3: (e.g., Use Opportunity 3 to reduce Weakness 3) Mitigating Weaknesses & Threats: Strategy 4: (e.g., Address Weakness 2 to avoid Threat 1) Strategy 5: (e.g., Minimize Weakness 1 through Opportunity 2)

Technique 3: Foresight Quadrant Crunching

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Break the lead hypothesis into component parts and identify critical dimensions. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)
• STEP 2: Use 2x2 matrices to generate alternative scenarios. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)

File:Media/table-13.3.png (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)

Technique 3: Indicators

Step-by-Step Guide:

• STEP 1: Brainstorm indicators for each scenario. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)
• STEP 2: Refine the indicators, ensuring they are observable, valid, reliable, and stable. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)

Technique Level 4

(To be expanded)

Technique Level 5

(To be expanded)