Center of Gravity Analysis Guide

Center of Gravity (COG) Analysis Guide

Overview

The Center of Gravity (COG) is a pivotal concept in military theory and strategic planning, originating from Carl von Clausewitz's work. It represents the source of power that provides moral or physical strength, freedom of action, or will. Proper identification and manipulation of the COG can lead to significant strategic advantages and can be decisive in military operations.

Understanding the COG helps commanders focus their efforts on targets that will have the greatest effect on the adversary's ability to conduct operations while also protecting their own COG.

Objectives and Detailed Questions

Identify the COG

Accurately identifying the COG is critical for successful operational planning. This involves a thorough analysis of friendly forces, adversaries, and other relevant actors such as host nations.

Friendly COG: Assess our foundational strengths across various domains: Diplomatic: What international alliances and diplomatic relations fortify our position?

• Information: Which communication and propaganda efforts are most influential?
• Military: What units, capabilities, or systems are crucial for our success?
• Economic: What economic policies and resources ensure our sustained operations?
• Cyber: What are our capabilities for defending and attacking in the digital realm?
• Space: How do our satellite and space-based operations enhance our strategic goals?

Adversary COG: Pinpoint the adversary’s vital sources of power and potential targets: Diplomatic: How do their international relationships affect their strategic capabilities?

• Information: What misinformation or psychological operations do they deploy?
• Military: Which military assets are essential to their operational success?
• Economic: Which economic dependencies are exploitable?
• Cyber: What are their cyber vulnerabilities?
• Space: Do they rely heavily on space-based assets?

Host Nation COG: Assess the host nation’s pivotal strengths and vulnerabilities: Diplomatic: What is the host nation’s stance, and how does it influence the conflict?

• Information: What are their capabilities in managing or disseminating information?
• Military: What military aspects of the host nation could influence their role in the conflict?
• Economic: How do the economic conditions affect their alignment in the conflict?
• Cyber: Assess the cyberinfrastructure and defenses of the host nation.
• Space: Evaluate the host nation’s reliance and capabilities on space-based assets.

Steps in COG Analysis

COG analysis involves a systematic approach to identify and exploit or protect centers of gravity.

1. Define the Operational Environment

Refer to the PMESII-PT (Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, Time) framework to gain a comprehensive understanding of the operational environment.

Questions to consider:

• What are the geographic, political, and societal characteristics that affect potential COGs?
• How do these elements advantage or disadvantage various actors?
• What historical, cultural, and economic factors influence the conflict?

2. Determine COGs for All Parties

Analyze the strengths and resources of friendly forces, adversaries, and other actors to hypothesize potential COGs.

For each actor:

• What are their primary sources of power?
• How do these COGs support their strategic objectives?
• Are there multiple COGs at different levels (strategic, operational, tactical)?

3. Identify Critical Capabilities

Critical capabilities are the primary abilities essential for a COG to function effectively. Focus on Actions (Verbs):

• What can the COG do to achieve its objectives?
• How does the COG exert influence or control?
• Strategic Contribution:
• How do these capabilities contribute to the actor's overall mission?
• What would be the impact if these capabilities were degraded or neutralized?

Examples of Critical Capabilities:

Military:

• Project Power: Ability to deploy forces rapidly across different theaters.
• Sustain Operations: Maintain prolonged military campaigns.
• Information:
• Influence Public Perception: Shape narratives to gain support.
• Collect Intelligence: Gather actionable information on adversaries.

4. Determine Critical Requirements

Critical requirements are essential conditions, resources, and means for a critical capability to be fully operational.

Focus on Resources (Nouns):

• What resources are necessary for the critical capabilities?
• Consider personnel, equipment, logistics, information, and infrastructure.
• Questions to consider:
• What logistical support is required?
• Are there technological dependencies?
• What are the training and readiness levels of personnel?

5. Identify Critical Vulnerabilities

Critical vulnerabilities are aspects of critical requirements that are deficient or vulnerable to direct or indirect attack.

Focus on Weaknesses (Nouns):

• Are there single points of failure?
• Are there resource constraints or dependencies?
• What are the physical or cyber vulnerabilities?
• Analysis:
• How can these vulnerabilities be exploited?
• What would be the effect of exploiting these vulnerabilities on the COG?

6. Assess and Prioritize Vulnerabilities

Use a weighting system to prioritize vulnerabilities based on their potential impact.

Criteria for Assessment:

• Impact on COG (I): How significantly would exploiting the vulnerability affect the COG?
  • Definition: Evaluate how a vulnerability affects the COG’s essential functionality or stability. This includes considering both the immediate impact and the potential for escalated disruptions or impairments over time.
  • Application: Analysis should include a detailed examination of how the vulnerability might compromise the COG, considering scenarios of varying severity and their probable impacts on the COG's operations and objectives.
• Attainability (A): How feasible is exploiting the vulnerability with available resources?
  • Definition: Assesses the feasibility of exploiting or mitigating the vulnerability, given the available resources, capabilities, and situational constraints.
  • Application: This involves evaluating the logistical, technological, and temporal resources required to address the vulnerability effectively. It should consider both the available resources and those that can be realistically obtained or mobilized.
• Potential for Follow-Up Actions (F)
  • Definition: Measures how addressing the vulnerability can provide strategic advantages or enable further actions that strengthen the COG or degrade an adversary's position.
  • Application: Focus on identifying opportunities for additional strategic actions post-mitigation or exploitation. These could include enhanced security measures, increased political leverage, or any actions further weakening the opposition.

Scoring System:

There are different considerations when establishing a scoring system. Regardless of which scoring system is used, it is important to maintain the same scoring to ensure that all participants understand the definition of the criteria and whether lower or higher criteria and en scores mean more or less advantages to the planner.

Traditional vs. Logarithmic Scoring is considered for this guide because

• Logarithmic Scoring:
  • Rate each criterion using (1,3,5,8,12)
    • Typically you want 1 to be the least advantageous and 12 to be the extremely most advantageous.
• Traditional Scoring:
  • Rate each criterion using a scale (e.g., 1-5).
    • Ensure that 1 is the most or least advantages and 5 is the opposite.
• Calculate a composite score to prioritize vulnerabilities.

Example Assessment Table:*

Vulnerability Assessment

Vulnerability	Impact (I)	Attainability (A)	Difficulty (D)	Composite Score
Supply Chain Disruption	5	4	2	11
Cyber Infrastructure Weakness	4	3	3	10
Reliance on Satellite Communications	3	2	4	9

Tools and Techniques

SWOT Analysis: Evaluate Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats for each COG.

• PMESII-PT Framework: Analyze the operational environment comprehensively.
• Systems Thinking: Understand the interdependencies within the operational environment.
• Red Teaming: Use adversarial thinking to challenge assumptions and identify vulnerabilities.

Best Practices

Continuous Assessment: Regularly update COG analysis to reflect changes in the operational environment.

• Interdisciplinary Approach: Incorporate insights from intelligence, logistics, cyber, and other relevant fields.
• Operational Security: Protect your own COG analysis from adversary intelligence efforts.
• Commander's Guidance: Align COG analysis with the commander's intent and operational objectives.